Copper price rises slightly, downward pressure ahead

The most-traded copper contract for delivery in April rose by 0.17 percent on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Friday, finishing at 51,810 yuan ($8,569.9) per ton, up 1.03 percent week-on-week.

The slight gain was partly driven by a recent decline in copper storage, both domestically and internationally. According to a report by Zhengzhou, Henan Province-based Futures Daily last week, copper storage by London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses has declined from 663,100 tons in July 2013 to 340,700 tons currently.

Also, copper storage by SHFE-registered warehouses decreased from 182,400 tons in July to 122,000 tons currently, with rising storage costs being the main reason for the reduction, the report said.

But when copper storage stabilizes, there is unlikely to be a significant rebound, and downward pressure on copper prices will remain due to the sluggish demand currently, according to a report by China Securities Journal (CSJ) Thursday.

Global copper supply saw a surplus of 442,000 tons from January to October 2013, the CSJ report said, citing data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. Global copper production capacity is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, so a further rise in supply is expected in 2014 and 2015.

Meanwhile, the copper market has been affected by concerns over whether the US Federal Reserve will continue to reduce its stimulus program, given the moderate recovery seen recently in the US economy, according to a report by Reuters Thursday.

"The main theme is that we'll see a more hawkish stance from the Fed moving forward. In line with that we'll continue to see a strong dollar, which will place downward pressure on commodities prices, including metals," Reuters quoted analyst Tim Radford of Sydney-based adviser Rivkin as saying.