China's ODI growth to beat forecasts

Nation set to become net capital exporter: official

China's outbound direct investment (ODI) will expand at a higher pace this year than previous forecast and the country is on track to become a net capital exporter, the Ministry of Commerce (MOF) said Wednesday.

The ODI growth was forecasted at around 10 percent over the level a year ago, but the actual growth may be higher than we had originally predicted, Zhang Xiangchen, assistant minister of commerce, said at a press conference on Wednesday.

The ODI may exceed $120 billion this year and will increase at a rate of 10 percent year-on-year in next five years, Zhang predicted.

It is only a matter of time when China's ODI exceeds the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, Zhang noted.

The ODI rose 21.6 percent to $74.96 billion in the first three quarters this year while the FDI fell 1.4 percent to $87.36 billion, according to the MOF. Last year, the ODI increased by 16.8 percent to $90.17 billion, while the FDI increased 5.25 percent to $117.59 billion, MOF data showed.

China's ODI will maintain a rapid growth momentum, driven by several new policies including the release of a new regulation on overseas investment by the MOF on September 6 and the ongoing negotiation of an investment agreement between China and the US, said Wang Yongzhong, a research fellow at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Under the new regulation, most domestic firms no longer need to get approval from the MOFCOM for investing abroad, but just register the investment with local authorities.

Only non-financial overseas investments in some "sensitive countries and regions" and "sensitive sectors" need to be reviewed by the MOF, the ministry said.

Among a total of 6,608 outbound investment projects which were reviewed in 2013, only 100 fell into the category of investment in "sensitive countries and industries," which still require approval under the new rule.

That means 98 percent of China's investment did not need to be reviewed, Zhang said at the press conference.

Also, the US government is expected to remove some restrictions on Chinese investors following investment negotiations between the two countries, which can also set an example for other countries and regions to further open market to Chinese investment, Wang said.

China's ODI surge is driven by both State-owned and private firms as the country gradually simplifies its approval procedures and lifts restrictions.

Anbang Insurance Group, one of China's largest insurers based in Beijing, announced on October 7 that it would buy Waldorf Astoria New York Hotel from Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc for $1.95 billion and Fidea, a Belgian-based insurer, for an undisclosed price.

Property prices in the US and EU dropped to a reasonable range after the financial crisis, offering good opportunities for mergers and acquisitions for China, said Zhang Jianping, a research fellow at the Academy of Macroeconomic Research under the National Development and Reform Commission.

According to data from the MOF, China's investment in the US and EU remained high in the first three quarters, with a 218 percent growth year-on-year in investment in EU and 28.2 percent increase in the US, which had a relatively high base last year.

About 40 countries and regions including Austria were net capital exporters until last year, according to Oesterreichische Nationalbank, the central bank of Austria.

The landscape of the global overseas investment is changing as China is on the way to become a net capital exporter. While China's outbound investment to the US and EU increased rapidly as firms sought high technology and brands through mergers and acquisitions, companies also stepped up efforts to export technology through overseas investment in sectors like infrastructure and high-speed railways, Wang said.

But there is still a long way to go for China to optimize foreign investment structure as the total volume of overseas investment from China is only $660 billion, accounting for about 10 percent of the figure in the US, said Zhang, the commerce assistant minister.