China exports moderate in October, point to further slide

China's exports decelerated to 11.6 percent year-on-year growth in October as analysts predict a further slowdown for exports in the coming months.

Exports for the month hit $206.87 billion, while imports stood at 161.46 billion U.S. dollars, up 4.6 percent, according to the data released on Saturday by the General Administration of Customs (GAC).

The monthly export growth contracted by 3.7 percentage points compared to 15.3 percent in September, the fastest growth rate in 19 months.

Bob Liu, an analyst of the China International Capital Corp (CICC), said growth moderation in October was mainly due to a high base figure last year. Nevertheless, the growth rate still beat the CICC's forecast of 10 percent, he said.

"Imports and exports in October have both extended a growth trend from the previous month," the GAC said in a press release.

In October, Total exports and imports rose 8.4 percent to $368.33 billion in the month, as trade surplus expanded to $45.41 billion, up 46.3 percent.

In the first ten months of this year, China's total exports and imports hit $3.53 trillion, up 3.8 percent. Trade surplus during the period stood at $277.11 billion, up 38.5 percent year on year.

During the Jan.-Oct. period, trade with the European Union, China's largest trading partner, saw the fastest growth of 9.8 percent, amounting to 3.12 trillion yuan.

Trade with the United States, China's second-largest trading partner, came in at 2.78 trillion yuan, up 5.5 percent. China-ASEAN trade went up 7.4 percent to 2.4 trillion yuan.

In contrast, trade between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong fell 10.1 percent to 1.82 trillion yuan in the first ten months, while trade with Japan fell 0.1 percent to 1.59 trillion yuan.

The GAC said foreign-invested companies were the main source of trade, with their total volume during the period accounting for 46 percent of the nation's total during the first ten months. This is compared to 34.6 percent held by privately-owned companies and 17.7 percent by state-owned firms. The fraction remaining came from micro-sized or individual businesses.

Exports including machinery, garments, textiles, shoes, toys and plastics rose during the first ten months, while exports of electronic products, home furniture and vehicles fell.

The leading export index slid to 41.7 in October, down 1.6 percentage points from September, which indicates a more pessimistic picture for exports in the coming months, according to the GAC data.

The GAC predicted that export growth in the next two to three months will further slow.

Bob Liu also forecast that export growth in November will continue to moderate as a result of a high base figure in the same period last year.

The moderating export growth came as the world's second largest economy geared down on a lower level of growth amid reform pushes for economic restructuring and industrial upgrading.

Third-quarter GDP growth slowed to 7.3 percent from 7.5 percent in the second and 7.4 percent in the first, indicating continued downward pressure in the economy.

The Ministry of Commerce also forecast in a report on Friday that the country may face notable trade challenges in 2015 as the global demand is unlikely to show a remarkable rebound and trade friction will be tough.

Facing these complicated situations, the government should further deepen policies to stabilize trade growth, boost imports, cultivate new trade competitive edges, facilitate trade services and avoid trade friction, the report said.

Zhang Yansheng, secretary-general of the academic committee at the National Development and Reform Commission, said China will have to rely more on technologies and innovation to consolidate its status in the value chain in international trade, and roll out more policies which are restructure-oriented, instead of continuing with old-fashioned approaches.