Profound regional impact from Silk Road initiatives

The "Belt and Road" initiatives raised by China to revive the ancient Silk Road and promote shared prosperity are set to make a profound long-term positive impact on Asia and the world.

A latest development came when Chinese President Xi Jinping announced on Nov. 8 that China would set up a Silk Road fund worth 40 billion U.S. dollars to support infrastructure, resources, industrial and financial cooperation and other projects related to connectivity for countries along the "Belt and Road."

The initiatives are a land-based belt from China via Central Asia and Russia to Europe, and a maritime Silk Road through the Straight of Malacca to India, the Middle East and East Africa.x Chang Jian, Barclays chief China economist, said in a research report that the initiatives will create trade and investment opportunities in infrastructure and construction, including transportation, ports, pipelines, power generation and environmental projects, as well as stimulating energy and resource exchanges, consumption and tourism.

"We think the initiative is underpinned by a win-win approach and a strong desire from China to export excess capacity, invest abroad and diversify its foreign exchange reserves. China has competitive edges in capital and expertise, while many Asian countries face large financing gaps," Chang said.

She said that the establishment of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in October demonstrated the regional desire to cooperate.

The Asian Development Bank estimates infrastructure financing demand in Asia will be around 8 trillion U.S. dollars between 2010 and 2020. The latest HSBC global research report also said that China's infrastructure sector has the capacity to meet the needs of Asia and further abroad. It said China's overseas investment should also generate demand for its exports and help take up the economic slack.

"Since the investment will be in roads, railways, ports and airports, it should benefit all parties, due to lower trade costs. Investing in infrastructure along these routes will serve to develop new export markets for China, generate better and longer-term returns on its foreign reserves, and act as another channel through which China can internationalize its currency, complemented by the likely boost to trade flows," the HSBC report said.

The initiatives should also bring more investment to the less developed central and western parts of the country.

Chang Jian said that more than 30 potential partner countries had expressed interest so far, accounting for more than 60 percent of world's population and 30 percent of its GDP. Recent enthusiasts include Russia, Tajikistan, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan.

"We think the new Silk Road plan offers a structured platform to leverage comparative advantages, improve economic cooperation and increase synergies across the region. New growth areas will be cultivated and new competitive edges could emerge through strengthening value-added, innovation, investment and market activities," Chang said.

She said that by building interdependent relationships based on shared economic interests, the initiatives would deepen political linkages, improve mutual understanding and foster long-term stability in the region.

"The agreement to set up the AIIB by countries that have territorial disputes with China suggests lower geopolitical risk and a lower probability of military conflicts, " she said.

However, the HSBC report warns that details of the allocation and management of the Silk Road fund are yet to be determined and financing and operational risks could endanger the "Belt and Road" strategy.

As most Chinese enterprises are still at an early stage of overseas investment, there is ample room for improvement in areas such as due diligence, environmental protection and working standards, according to the report.