CAAM predicts stable auto sales growth for 2015

After becoming the world's largest auto market in 2014 for the sixth year in a row, the Chinese market will continue to see a stable auto sales growth of 7 percent, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) forecast Monday.

Total vehicle sales in 2014 hit 23.49 million units, up 6.9 percent from a year earlier, compared to 13.9 percent seen in 2013, according to data from CAAM.

With slowing GDP growth, the Chinese market is also entering a stable growth phase, which means there will be no sales surge for cars without stimulus policies, according to the forecast report CAAM e-mailed to the Global Times Monday.

"China's auto sales are not likely to return to double-digit growth after years of rapid expansion," Wu Shuocheng, a senior analyst at industry consultancy Menutor Consulting Shanghai Co, told the Global Times Monday.

CAAM predicted that passenger vehicles sales in 2015 will be about 21.25 million units, showing 8 percent year-on-year growth.

Considering China's average vehicle ownership is around 100 units per 1,000 people, and China is encouraging domestic consumption, the Chinese market is still showing robust demand for passenger vehicles, said the report.

There were over 800 vehicles for every 1,000 Americans, according to a report released by market research company Nielsen Co in May 2014.

Meanwhile, some policies launched in 2014, including taking heavy-polluting vehicles off the road and phasing out official vehicles, will encourage car sales, Li Jingsheng, vice secretary-general of CAAM, told a press conference in Beijing on Monday.

China plans to eliminate 5 million heavy-polluting vehicles before the end of 2015, according to a project plan jointly released by five ministries in September 2014.

The forecast report said that commercial vehicles will see a slight growth of 2.4 percent year-on-year in 2015 to reach a total sales of about 3.88 million units, compared to a 6.5 percent year-on-year sales drop in 2014.

The forecast report contributed the lukewarm sales of commercial vehicles to the economic downturn, which cut the need for road transportation.

Moreover, China has required that light-duty trucks meet new national emission standards in 2015, which is expected to reduce truck sales, the report said.

But people's enthusiasm for online shopping is also bringing a big potential market for commercial vehicles used for parcel deliveries in urban areas, Dong Yang, secretary-general of the CAAM, said at the press conference Monday.

Many parcels are delivered to customers' doors by motor tricycles, which do not meet emission standards or transportation regulations in cities, Dong said, noting that door-to-door delivery should be finished by light trucks.

New-energy vehicles will see robust growth in 2015, considering the Chinese government's solid support for green cars, Dong noted.

According to data from CAAM, the sales of new-energy vehicles surged by 324 percent to 75,000 units in 2014 from a year ago. Dong expected the sales figures to double in 2015.

CAAM also predicted that China's auto exports will continue to drop 5 percent year-on-year in 2015 after a 6.9 percent decrease in 2014.

The factors leading to the export decrease last year will still exist in 2015, such as the yuan's appreciation and unstable situations in some developing countries which are Chinese automakers' target markets, Dong said.