China faces tough call in Iran showdown

The Iran situation remains unpredictable as the country considers suspending oil exports to EU countries. China faces a tough diplomatic challenge.

Despite these twists and turns, the general direction is clear. The US and Europe are determined to unseat the current Iranian regime. An oil embargo, aimed at choking Iran's economic lifeline, has been adopted. Overall oil embargoes will start in six months whether Iran stops oil exports to the EU or not.

It's the gamble that will decide the political fate of this major Middle East oil producer with a population of 60 million. Equally at stake is the future global geopolitical landscape. China will be deeply involved in the process, of which it should be under no illusion.

A showdown between the West and Iran will partly be turned into a West-China showdown, namely whether China should comply with the West's geopolitical decision. In previous major world political conflicts, China has sought to avoid direct confrontation with the US and Europe. The tradeoff is a relatively mild policy from the West toward China. Now the West has the same expectations of China.

But the Iran issue involves so much of China's interests that no other previous international conflict is comparable in this regard. Ten percent of China's oil is imported from Iran, and China cannot stay aloof from the affair.

While there is no other choice for China, it should have the courage to drop minor details and focus on the biggest realistic interests of China on this issue and China's diplomatic principles that need to be protected most. The former is continuing to import oil from Iran while the latter is opposing external forces to change a country's regime, particularly with threats of war.

The two basic stands are against EU and US policies toward Iran. But this opposition is inevitable due to the importance of the Iran issue for China. It is obvious that eventually the resolution of the problem will come to the point of forcing China to pull back from its stance. China should consider how to handle it when the time comes. China needs to prepare to face it squarely once the conflict becomes impossible to avoid.

China should quicken its steps in coordinating with countries in South and East Asia and try its best to form a temporary alliance with them in continuing to buy oil from Iran. Such an alliance is possible, as seen from the hesitation of countries like Japan and India in sanctioning Iran.

The US may make risky moves at some key time in order to prevent China from acquiring oil from Iran, a possibility that cannot be ruled out. China should be well prepared for the situation to escalate. When its rights are unfairly stepped upon, due countermeasures should be in place.

The cash-strapped West has many concerns about starting another war at this time. The failure of the sanctions doesn't necessarily mean war. It suggests more room for China to exert its diplomatic power.