Abe offers no real way out for Japan

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has won 294 seats in the 480-member lower house of parliament.

The LDP and its ally, the New Komeito Party, have captured two-thirds of the seats, letting them now pass or block bills on most matters. This landslide victory went beyond most pundits' expectations. Japanese voters have high hopes of the LDP this time.

In the Chinese public's eyes, Japan's next Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is a hawkish politician. In the election campaign, Abe embraced right-wing rhetoric and claimed to be tough on neighboring countries. As soon as he won the election, Abe vowed a tough line on the Diaoyu Islands dispute.

But for Japanese voters, this diplomatic toughness was not their major reason for picking Abe.

Like many other countries, foreign affairs were not major issues in Japan's general election. The electoral result seems to reflect Japanese people's anxiety and depression over the environment both at home and abroad.

While he came into office as Japan's prime minister six years ago, Abe constantly chanted slogans about a beautiful Japan.

But since then Japan's social and economic development has been dim. Especially in recent years, there has been little reason for optimism about the domestic economy.

Japanese electric giants' performance has been poor, and they have lost out to Korean and even Chinese companies in overseas markets. Auto enterprises have lost some market share in China, the largest auto market in the world, amid the tension between the two countries over the Diaoyu Islands. Japan's prosperity is based on trade. But nowadays it's hard to rely on automobile and electric appliances, the two largest items in Japanese exports, to pull the economy forward.

Two years ago, then Japanese prime minister Naoto Kan proposed fueling the economy through exporting nuclear power technology and exporting the Shinkansen, known as the bullet train.

Today Japan's nuclear energy blueprint has vanished due to the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011, and the Shinkansen is facing an intense contest with cheaper bullet trains from China.

Japanese society is suffering from the aging problem and a shrinking population. In the future, Japan will experience not only a narrowing domestic consumption market, but also a lack of labor. Japan is still the third largest economy in the world, but its economic prospects are quite pessimistic.

As to international politics, for years the Japanese media has been agitating a public sense of insecurity toward neighboring environment. They interpret China's rise as a constraint on Japan, and stop at nothing to foment public emotions while conflicts erupt between Japan and other countries like North Korea, South Korea and Russia.

Abe and his LDP are well aware of the mood of depression, and that's why they keep playing up their measures to lead Japan out of the crisis. Nevertheless, the prescriptions given by the LDP are very doubtful.

The LDP calls for the central bank to embark on "unlimited easing" and sets an inflation target with 2 percent. In other words, the central bank will be forced to print more money. The money, according to the LDP, will be used for public construction and infrastructure expansion. In a nation with shrinking market, few fields that can yield considerable growth and already excessive infrastructure projects, these measures may only bring about increased inflation.

In national defense, the LDP proposes revising the pacifist clauses in the constitution, upgrading the Self-Defense Forces into defense forces. This appears to be a measure of strengthening national defense, but against the backdrop of deteriorating economy, it risks a vicious circle where Japan could use arms expansion and development of military industry to solve unemployment.

Abe has ambitious plans to enhance the US-Japanese military alliance. In exchange, Japan is very likely to eventually join the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership led by the US, with the two opening their market to each other. But under the current circumstances, it's hard for Japan to benefit from these exchanges.

It's those frantic polices that helped the LDP win a victory. Japanese voters disappointed by reality risked their and the country's future by voting those who shouted most loudly and bragged the most.

But when they cool down, they will realize that politicians like Abe are leading Japan into the mire, risking sinking deeper and deeper. If Japan is confronted with a situation where the government is heavily burdened by debt, with credit bankrupting and military expenditure soaring, what will the Japanese public do?　　　

(The author is a scholar living in Japan.)