What Indian election holds for China

Polling began in India's general election on April 7, and a new government is expected to assume office by the end of May. The excitement in the country over the outcome of the keenly contested election is palpable. The questions being asked both within and outside the country are what will be India's foreign policy orientation after the election - and what will be its economic policy, which will have a bearing on the foreign policy. Some people are also asking whether there will be any change in India's policy toward China.

While it is difficult to predict the outcome of the election because of the changing electoral dynamics till the last minute that can swing the mood of the electorate, one need not be a rocket scientist to assert that there cannot be any radical shift in India's foreign policy orientation, including its policy toward China.

Sino-Indian relations have gone through ups and downs over the years. They have acquired a degree of dynamism and reliance which is irreversible. This has been carefully built and nurtured by succeeding leaderships of different political persuasions and predilections. Top leaders of both the Congress Party, that heads the ruling coalition (United Progressive Alliance) and the Bharatiya Janata Party, that headed the National Democratic Alliance government from 1998 to 2004, have helped strengthen relations between India and China.

Therefore, it will not be out of context to mention that when the first non-Congress government was formed in India (under the erstwhile Janata Party government in 1977), its foreign minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee (who became prime minister in 1998) visited China to improve relations between the two countries. Former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi visited China in 1988, when the two countries signed the Joint Working Group Mechanism. After Rajiv Gandhi's assassination in 1991, Narasimha Rao became India's prime minister and visited China in 1993 and signed the Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility.

Incumbent Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his cabinet colleagues, including Defense Minister A.K. Antony and External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, have invested heavily in the comprehensive engagement between the two countries and their peoples. The point is that irrespective of the leadership change in both countries, their bilateral relations have improved for the better.

China has declared 2014 as the "Year of China-India Friendly Exchanges". Important visits at the senior level have taken place between the two sides in the past few months and more significant visits are scheduled for the rest of the year.

In line with the friendly theme for the year, Chinese State Councilor and top diplomat Yang Jiechi visited India in February to take part in the Special Representatives' Talks. During the visit, he also held discussions with Prime Minister Singh and other top leaders, including National Security Adviser Shivsankar Menon, and attended the ceremony to launch the Year of China-India Friendly Exchanges, where India's Vice-President Hamid Ansari, too, was present. And in January, Chinese Vice-President Li Yuanchao participated in a program organized by India's Ambassador to China Ashok Kantha in Beijing to mark the 65th Republic Day of India.

Also, the 6th India-China Defense and Security Dialogue, co-chaired by India's Defense Secretary R.K. Mathur and Deputy Chief of General Staff of the PLA Wang Guanzhong, was held in New Delhi in February, and Defense Minister Chang Wanquan is scheduled to visit India soon.

Besides, Beijing has invited India's vice-president to visit China sometime later this year and, if some Indian media outlets are to be believed, President Xi Jinping is likely to visit India before the year ends.

Despite 2014 being an election year in India, it has been business as usual for Sino-Indian relations. This has set the stage for the new dispensation in New Delhi to strengthen bilateral relations. A stable government will be emboldened to be more purposive and mindful of its policies and programs with a long-term perspective.

However, the leaderships of the two countries still face some serious challenges when it comes to bilateral relations: trust deficit and security dilemma - and how to overcome them. So diplomats, bureaucrats, and business and corporate leaders of the two countries have to work very hard to identify and synergize the complementarities of the two economies for a win-win situation for the mutual benefit.

The author, Rup Narayan Das, is a senior fellow with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. The views in the article are personal.