A two-child policy for all(2)

To protect families' interests and curb the declining population trend, China should change its family planning policy to encourage families to have a second child. On the one hand, the authorities should reduce the number of high-risk, one-child families by encouraging citizens to have at least two children. On the other hand, population security is the starting point of a population strategy for national security, which is a significant component of national power. This requires not only balanced, coordinated and sustainable development, but also the ability to resist risks. Hence we should guarantee a strategic reserve of young people, and ensure there is a moderate population growth to ensure an adequate labor supply and pool of talent.

China should worry about its current low fertility rate, rather than a population rebound. China's family planning policy has formed a kind of internal power: birth control has become Chinese people's basic lifestyle. As the cost of rearing children continues to increase, young couples prefer later marriages, later childbirth, and fewer children. Even if the authorities allow all families to have a second child, the actual fertility rate will probably be lower than 1.5. Fluctuations in a country's fertility rate are a normal demographic phenomenon; even if it rebounds it's impossible that the fertility rate will surpass the population replacement level. Many surveys show that a majority of families who claim to want "more children" only want to have two. The problem is that more and more young couples only want one child. These couples surpass the number of couples who want more children. With rapid urban development and modernization, the cost of raising children is becoming higher and higher. Even now the authorities have relaxed the family planning policy to allow couples where either the husband or wife is an only child to have a second child, many qualified families are hesitating to make this decision. China has undoubtedly fallen into the trap of endogenous low fertility. Even if the authorities allow all couples to have a second child, the fertility rate will be under the population replacement level, which is determined by the principles of population transformation and childbirth transformation.

One difficulty of family planning policy reform is that China still has a perception of its population as a burden. Yet, population is the matrix of manpower and talent, and is the most valuable resource as it has activity, creativity and reproductivity. China should correct its conception of population to appreciate the value, advantage, power and contribution of people.

The right to reproduce is a basic human right and public power should protect rather than trample upon private rights. Children are the hope for both families and the country, therefore, population growth is the growth and accumulation of hope. Population growth should be balanced and sustainable. We should welcome rather than be afraid of a baby boom, because it could effectively resist three major risks: population loss, population decline and an unbalanced population. The challenges baby boom may bring to public resources and public services could be coped with.

The author, Mu Guangzong, is a professor at the Population Research Institute of Peking University.